Automatic trading tool Selene] Annual interest rate exceeded 100%!

Contents

Selene (Dow Theory based EA) has surpassed 100% annual interest!
Trade Results
EA Trade Review
EA's Operating Environment

Selene (Dow Theory based EA) has surpassed 100% annual interest!

The operation began on April 16, 2024, and achieved 100% annual interest in less than two months!

In the most recent trade, he won 20 straight!

We have continued to develop the product through trial and error with the theme of " 100% annual interest on a small investment," and we are finally starting to produce results little by little.

Although there are areas for improvement, we have achieved our goals for the time being, and we are confident that we can now introduce this product to the market.

Trade Results

The operational results in the real account are available on Myfxbook.　Trading history is currently open to the public, but may be made private at some point in the future. Please understand.

EA Trade Review

Why the high growth rate?

It was completely unexpected that we could achieve 100% annual interest in just two months, and we thought it would be enough to reach it more gradually, taking about six months to a year.

Possible reasons for the large profit growth are the "benefit of compound interest" and "market compatibility".

Since the EA's win rate is somewhat high (75~80 for all stocks in the back test %程度、リアル口座での現在の勝率は85% ), compound interest management allows you to increase your trading lots in stages and increase profits at once when you enter a market that is a good match for you.

There is also the problem that if a loss is reached at a time when the lot size increases, the negative value of one trade becomes large and it takes time to recover, but a profit as large as the current one would be difficult to realize even if operated at a single interest rate.

The policy of trying to operate with a balance that would allow for some larger drawdowns worked as intended.

I realized once again that when operating with compound interest, if losing trades occur and the balance decreases, the number of lots will also decrease, making it safer and easier to increase profits than when operating with a single interest rate.

As for the phase of the market, although it was also a time when there was a strong sense of caution about currency intervention, we tried to continue operating completely uninterrupted from the day we started operations. Some positions reached a loss amid the turbulent rate fluctuations, but on the other hand, many of them led to large gains, which means that in total, it was easy to increase profits by continuing to operate.

In line with our initial image of the EA as an EA that easily grows profits at the timing of strong trends, we believe that the market in the last two months was very compatible with the EA, which was the reason for the large increase in profits.

When compared to the results of the 15-year backtest, the current results are on the upside, so it is quite possible that the pace will settle down to something more realistic, as there will always be times when the market loses somewhere and there will always be times when the market does not grow.

We will continue to trade on the real account and see how it goes, even if there are times when our performance is sluggish.

Number of trades

In just under two months, 70 transactions occurred, or 35 per month, or about 4~5 per week, which is generally consistent with the back-test results.

Some people may feel that it is not enough, but we are currently developing new EAs, and our goal is to eventually have 3~4 EAs running in parallel.

By running multiple EAs, we would like to increase opportunities for entry in different trading styles (= different timing), thus simultaneously achieving trade frequency, profit growth, risk diversification, etc.

*We also plan to release a new version of Helios, an automated trading tool that was previously released to the public, utilizing the ideas gained during the development of this EA.

Average holding time

The average holding time was about 15 hours. This also did not deviate significantly from the back-test results. Since this is only an average, there were a reasonable number of positions held across days.

I originally wrote that it was a day trading type EA, but now I feel that it is more appropriate to call it a swing type EA because it straddles dates depending on positions. I have corrected other articles as well.

Sometimes there are cases of entries in sensitive positions

I had an image of where I wanted the entry to be, but due to the optimization process that mimics the machine learning process and uses a large number of parameters, the entry was sometimes made at a point different from the image I had.

However, sometimes it leads to a loss and sometimes to a gain, and at the moment this is not a situation that is leading to extremely bad results, so we are going to take a wait-and-see approach.

Machine learning gives the impression that " explainability " is difficult to ensure, and in some cases it is not possible to explain concisely why the results were obtained.

Originally, we are trying to avoid ambiguous judgments in important areas by combining with rule-based logic, but we felt that there are still areas where the behavior needs to be adjusted a little more.

We would like to consider revising the various judgment processes in the future if there are any problems that have a large impact while repeating trades.

EA's Operating Environment

Currently, Selene consists of 9 EAs (=9 stocks). Do you need a high spec VPS?" I myself am running a Windows Server on AWS EC2 in the London region with instance type t3a-small.

With 2vCPU and 2GiB of memory, it is a relatively small instance but is running without problems. Some people may think that 9 instances of EA require a large amount of space. However, we hope you can use this EA without worrying because you don't need to prepare a large instance to run it.

For those who are not comfortable with building a VPS by themselves (those who feel it is difficult or do not know how to manage it), we recommend using a VPS service with strong Japanese-language support.

Name.com VPS for automated FX trading

Another idea is to use a copy trade for those who are too lazy to prepare a VPS in the first place.

Although there is a fee for copy trading, it is a means to greatly expand your trading possibilities, whether you want to start trading immediately without preparing the environment, eliminate the cost of maintaining the environment (no maintenance fee with performance-based copy trading), or complete settings and trade immediately from your smartphone. I believe that this will be a means to greatly expand your trading possibilities.